Chinese electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer Nio Inc. has once again captured investor and industry attention with the unveiling of its third-generation ES8. According to Deutsche Bank analysts, the competitive pricing strategy of the new ES8 could push sales to an average of 3,000 units per month, returning the flagship SUV to historical peak sales levels. This bullish outlook has prompted Deutsche Bank to raise its price target for Nio shares listed in Hong Kong from HK$71.00 to HK$75.00.
Deutsche Bank’s Sales Forecast
Deutsche Bank analyst Wang Bin and his team released a research note projecting that Nio could achieve an average monthly sales volume of 3,000 units for the ES8. If this forecast is realized, the model would re-establish its momentum and sustain peak performance levels seen in late 2018.
The analysts highlight that competitive pricing is a major factor behind the sales expectations. The significant price reduction for the third-generation ES8 makes it more appealing in the increasingly crowded premium EV SUV market.
Summary Table
Key Details |
Information |
|---|---|
Company |
Nio Inc. |
Model |
Third-Generation ES8 |
Pre-Sales Price |
RMB 416,800 (USD 58,030) with 100-kWh battery |
BaaS Plan Price |
RMB 308,800 |
Expected Final Launch Price |
Around RMB 399,000 |
Forecast Sales (Monthly) |
3,000 units |
Annual Sales Forecast |
320,000 units (2025), 460,000 units (2026), 570,000 units (2027) |
Deutsche Bank Target Price |
Raised from HK$71.00 to HK$75.00 |
Nio Stock Price (Current) |
HK$43.98 (up 6.8%) |
Official Website |
Historical Performance of the ES8
The ES8 holds a special place in Nio’s product lineup as the company’s first mass-produced vehicle. Deliveries began in June 2018, and within a few months, the model achieved notable milestones. In November 2018, Nio delivered 3,089 ES8s, followed by 3,318 units in December 2018. These remain its highest sales months to date.
With the launch of the third-generation ES8, Deutsche Bank analysts believe the SUV has the potential to replicate, and possibly surpass, these numbers for a sustained period.
Pricing Advantage of the Third-Generation ES8
Nio officially unveiled the third-generation ES8 yesterday, with pre-sales commencing immediately. The official launch is scheduled for Nio Day 2025, a key annual event for the company.
The third-generation ES8 starts at RMB 416,800 (approximately USD 58,030), which includes a 100-kWh battery pack. This represents a substantial reduction of RMB 139,200, or about 25 percent, compared with the previous 100-kWh version, which was priced at RMB 556,000.
Under Nio’s Battery-as-a-Service (BaaS) plan, customers can further reduce the upfront cost by opting for a rental arrangement. The BaaS plan reduces the starting price to RMB 308,800, down from RMB 428,000 for the previous ES8 with the same battery capacity.
Based on industry trends, Deutsche Bank expects the final launch price to be slightly lower than pre-sale levels, possibly around RMB 399,000.
Competitive Position in the Market
The new ES8 enters a segment where it faces competition from models such as the Aito M9 EV, Aito M8 EV, Li L9, and the upcoming Zeekr 9X. Despite strong competition, Deutsche Bank’s report points out that Nio’s SUV offers a larger size and better value relative to these rivals. This positioning could play a crucial role in helping Nio capture market share in China’s premium electric SUV category.
Future Sales Outlook
Beyond the ES8’s monthly sales forecast, Deutsche Bank analysts have raised their projections for Nio’s overall group performance. The team forecasts annual sales volumes of:
-
2025: 320,000 units
-
2026: 460,000 units
-
2027: 570,000 units
These figures reflect Nio’s strong momentum as it expands its portfolio and strengthens its presence in the EV market.
Financial Forecast Adjustments
The stronger-than-expected sales outlook has also led Deutsche Bank to slightly adjust Nio’s financial forecasts. The analysts now expect Nio’s net loss in 2025 to be RMB 17.57 billion, compared to their earlier estimate of RMB 17.76 billion. While the company is still projected to post a loss, the improved outlook indicates a narrowing of deficits as volumes rise.
Consequently, Deutsche Bank raised its target price for Nio shares in Hong Kong from HK$71.00 to HK$75.00.
Market Response
Nio’s stock price surged in early trading in Hong Kong following the release of Deutsche Bank’s report. As of the time of writing, shares rose 6.8 percent to HK$43.98. Since July, Nio’s share price has climbed 60 percent, supported by strong investor sentiment, the unveiling of new models such as the Onvo L90, and renewed confidence in the company’s growth trajectory.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Q1: What is the starting price of the new ES8?
The third-generation ES8 starts at RMB 416,800, including a 100-kWh battery pack. Under the BaaS battery rental plan, the price starts at RMB 308,800.
Q2: When will the new ES8 officially launch?
The official launch is scheduled for Nio Day 2025.
Q3: How does the ES8 compare with competitors?
The ES8 offers a larger size and more competitive pricing compared to rivals such as the Aito M9 EV, Aito M8 EV, Li L9, and Zeekr 9X.
Q4: What are Deutsche Bank’s sales forecasts for Nio?
Deutsche Bank forecasts Nio’s annual sales at 320,000 units in 2025, 460,000 units in 2026, and 570,000 units in 2027.
Q5: Has Deutsche Bank revised its price target for Nio?
Yes, Deutsche Bank raised its price target for Nio’s Hong Kong-listed shares from HK$71.00 to HK$75.00.
Q6: How has Nio’s stock performed recently?
A. Nio shares have risen about 60 percent in Hong Kong since July, with a 6.8 percent surge on the day Deutsche Bank released its updated forecast.
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